As I write this on Friday, September 20, the Chicago Cubs under first-year manager Craig Counsell are nearly out of the playoff picture with only eight games left in the regular season. Their triple-A affiliate, the Iowa Cubs, are in seventh place in the International League’s West Division with a second half record of 33-40 record. Neither record is good, although minor-league baseball is more about developing talent than winning championships.
The Chicago Cubs’ failure to reach the playoffs is not unexpected. They didn’t do much in the offseason other than sign a highly touted Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga and resign Cody Bellinger. They were hoping that by signing Counsell to a record-setting managerial contract, they could get over the finish line despite not improving their offense or signing a big-name closer. Instead of spending a lot of money for a player like Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto, they brought back catcher Yan Gomes and backup outfielder Mike Tauchman and signed reliever Hector Neris. Gomes and Neris didn’t last the season. The only notable addition at the trade deadline was third baseman Isaac Paredes. Nevertheless, Chicago is close to the luxury tax threshold, which is odd for a team that won’t make the playoffs.
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has one more year left on his contract as Theo Epstein’s successor. Some fans on social media have called for Hoyer’s firing. I doubt owner Tom Ricketts will do that now. But if the Cubs don’t reach the playoffs again next season, I expect Chicago will have a new general manager.
The Cubs at the major-level are in a tough spot. Outfielders Ian Happ and Seya Suzuki and infielders Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner have multi-year contracts, which makes trading them more difficult. Five of the organization’s top six prospects — outfielders Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara, infielder Matt Shaw and James Triantos, and catcher Moises Ballesteros — are finishing the season with the Iowa Cubs.
In 124 games with the I-Cubs this season, Caissie has put up strong numbers despite being one of the youngest players in the International League. The 22-year-old Canadian has hit .271 with 19 homers, 29 doubles, three triples, 74 RBIs, a .371 on-base percentage, a .472 slugging percentage, an .842 on-base plus slugging percentage and 216 total bases. He’s struck out 151 times, which is more than you’d like. Hopefully, he’ll strike out less as he gets older. I can see him forcing his way into Chicago’s lineup next season if Bellinger opts out of his contract and Suzuki is shifted to designated hitter.
Shaw may also see playing time in Chicago next season at second base, shortstop or third base, especially if Hoerner is traded during the off season. He’s played mainly third base for the I-Cubs, but he was a second baseman in college. The 5-9, 185-pound native of Massachusetts started the season at double-A Tennessee and was promoted to Iowa on August 6. Chicago’s No. 1 pick in the 2023 amateur draft has hit .295 and driven in 19 runs in 33 games for the I-Cubs so far. Shaw hit .279, drove in 50 runs and stole 25 bases in 86 games with Tennessee.
In the week ending September 19, Shaw went 12-for-26 at the plate with three doubles, a triple, three homers and five RBIs. He walked twice and struck out six times in that span. With 20 home runs now, he is the first 20-20 player in the Cubs’ organization this year. He has now surpassed pitcher Cade Horton as No. 1 on the Cubs’ Top 30 Prospects list. He’s rated No. 22 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list.
“While Shaw has below-average arm strength, at third, his hitting on the whole is turning heads,” says Ron Voller of lastwordonsports.com. “He can hit for average and for power, and he hits to all parts of the ballpark. This separates him from Paredes, who is a dead pull hitter.
“Shaw, who has stolen 30 bases so far this season, is faster than Paredes and shows good instincts. If he’s able to continue hitting at the big-league level, he is a potential 20-20 or possibly even a 30-30 player. Only time will tell whether he’s able to excel at the top level.”
Ballesteros joined the I-Cubs on June 18 after playing 56 games with Tennessee. The 20-year-old Venezuelan has turned heads with his .284 batting average, 10 home runs, 15 doubles, 35 RBIs, .342 on-base percentage and .801 OPS. Some question his ability to catch in the major leagues. I’ve seen him behind the plate with the I-Cubs and believe he deserves a chance at catching at the next level. He’s also played first base and served in the designated-hitter role. His 5-7, 215-pound frame, however, presents a small target for a first baseman. At some point next season, you’ll probably see Ballesteros catching or serving as a designated hitter in Chicago.
The 25-year-old Paredes is probably a place holder for the next Chicago Cubs’ third baseman. The North Siders’ No. 1 draft pick this season, Cam Smith, tore up the Low A Carolina League and was promoted High A South Bend in the Midwest League and finally to Tennessee, the defending Southern League champion. The 6-3, 224-pound product of Florida State University hit six homers in 15 games for Low A Myrtle Beach and one more in 12 games with South Bend.
Despite playing better after the All-Star break, the Chicago Cubs’ lack of offense with runners in scoring position and a leaky bullpen doomed them this season. Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report believes a deal with Sota over the offseason could cost $500 million, per si.com. I don’t see the Chicago Cubs, however, going that high. New York Mets power-hitting
Like a lot of other fans, I hope Chicago unloads backups Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni and Nick Madigral. Wisdom is only a designated hitter and pinch-hitter at this point; his defense at third base has declined. Mastrobuoni can play several positions but doesn’t hit much. Madrigal doesn’t hit for much power even when he’s healthy. It’s worth noting that Counsell has used the right-handed hitting Wisdom as a pinch-hitter for left-handed hitting first baseman Michael Busch against left-handed pitchers even though Busch hits left-handed pitching better than Wisdom.
Top photo: Outfielder Owen Caissie, the No. 3-rated player in the Chicago Cubs’ organization, takes a cut in an Iowa Cubs game at Principal Park in Des Moines earlier this season. Only teammates Matt Shaw, No. 1, and Cade Horton, No. 2, are ranked ahead of Caissie.
Steve Dunn’s latest book, Pug, Fireball and Company: 116 Years of Professional Baseball in Des Moines, Iowa, is available by going to pugfireballandcompany.com. The book is also available at Beaverdale Books and In Tandem Arts & Authors Gallery and Bookstore in Des Moines, Hidden Treasures Gifts & Book-Tea-Que in Altoona and Dog Eared Books in Ames. In addition, he has started a new podcast at https://www.youtube.com/@SteveDunn-o9i.
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